Last time
we looked at the feedback loop that is climate change and species
extinction. We considered that this may
be the Holocene Extinction, we may be included in it, and that at least one scientist believes human extinction is both inevitable and immanent.
It is
at this point that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports start to look hopeful. From the 2014 Summary for Policy Makers:
·
Without additional
mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation,
warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of
severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence).
·
Surface
temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed
emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and
last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and
frequent in many regions.
·
The
ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise. Earth System Models project a global increase
in ocean acidification for all scenarios by the end of the 21st century. There
is high confidence that ocean acidification will increase for centuries if CO2
emissions continue, and will strongly affect marine ecosystems.
·
Climate
change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human
systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for
disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development.
·
Many
aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries,
even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped.
·
A
large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is
irreversible on a multi-century to millennial timescale, except in the case of
a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period.
It’s a
grim picture, especially when you consider the consequences of ocean
acidification and a warmed planet. No
wonder some people don't like the UN.
 |
| Alberta Tar Sands, also know as Oil Sands, mine. |
Now here's
some “good” news from the same Summary:
·
Adaptation
and mitigation are complementary strategies for reducing and managing the risks
of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades
can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and beyond, increase prospects for
effective adaptation, reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer
term and contribute to climate-resilient pathways for sustainable
development.
·
We
can reduce the risk, and it requires immediate drastic action: There are multiple mitigation pathways that
are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels.
These pathways will require substantial emissions reductions over the next few
decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by
the end of the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial
technological, economic, social and institutional challenges, which increase
with delays in additional mitigation and if key technologies are not available.
Limiting warming to lower or higher levels involves similar challenges but on
different timescales.
 |
| Maligne Lake, Alberta |
In
other (good) news…
Just this week, groupof Canadian oil sands companies along with U.S.-based NRG Energy is funding
an XPrize competition designed to solve one of the world's most elusive
problems: how to reduce CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. There
is $20 million U.S. up for grabs. It seems these oil sands companies (at least) are not climate denialists.
Also this week, Shell
abandoned
oil exploration plans in the Arctic. This
has been widely reported in the news.
Maybe
we can figure this out, but it will take all of us, on every level, immediately.
To start at the beginning of this seven part series, you might start with my journey, or Global Warming 101.
To start at the beginning of this seven part series, you might start with my journey, or Global Warming 101.
